The unemployment rate is higher among urban women as was the case before the pandemic.
Union Labour Minister Bhupender Yadav has exuded confidence that four labour codes, which would bring another wave of reforms, will soon be implemented as around 90 per cent of states have already come out with draft rules. In 2019 and 2020, 29 central labour laws were amalgamated, rationalised and simplified into four labour codes, viz, the Code on Wages, 2019; the Industrial Relations Code, 2020; the Code on Social Security, 2020; and the Occupational Safety, Health & Working Conditions Code, 2020, noted the Survey. During an interaction, Yadav told reporters that around 90 per cent of the states have already published draft rules on four labour codes and he expects the four legislations would become operational soon.
Urban employment rate increased to 34.96 per cent in February. This is the highest employment rate recorded in urban India since September 2020.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday affirmed India's sovereign credit rating at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook, saying the rating derives strengths from the country's robust growth outlook and still-resilient external finances. It said India's robust medium-term growth outlook is a key supporting factor for the rating. A clear improvement in corporate and bank balance sheets, which were under strain prior to the pandemic, is likely to facilitate a steady acceleration in investment in the coming years.
In 2022-2023, 15.5 per cent of women were unemployed compared to 11.2 per cent in 2017-2018. For every one woman employed, 10 men got a job.
'it's not just youth in India who are left behind because of their inability to find jobs; nearly two-thirds of Indian women of working ages do not participate at all in the paid labour force.'
India will need to grow at an average 7.8 per cent to become a high-income country by 2047, a World Bank report said on Friday. To achieve this goal India would require reforms in financial sector as well as in land and labour market, the World Bank said in its India Country Memorandum titled 'Becoming a High-Income Economy in a generation'.
The share of women employed in regular salaried jobs in urban India hit a fresh low in the January-March quarter (Q4) of 2023-24 (FY24). In the same period, the share of women engaged in self-employment went up. An analysis of the latest quarterly Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data showed the share of women in regular wage work among all employed women stood at 52.3 per cent in Q4FY24, down from 53 per cent in the previous quarter.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday said the Indian economy is set for "resilient growth" in 2025 and projected inflation pressure to recede which will lead to "modest" easing of the monetary policy by the RBI. In its India outlook for 2025, S&P also retained India's growth forecast for current fiscal at 6.8 per cent, followed by 6.9 per cent growth in 2025-26.
'The economic impact of this lockdown is evidently huge.' 'Its impact on the livelihood of vulnerable sections of the society is immeasurably bigger,' observes Mahesh Vyas.
India's unemployment rose to a three-month high in March to 7.8 per cent as the country's labour markets deteriorated, according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). Unemployment rate in the country surged in December 2022 to 8.30 per cent but declined in January to 7.14 per cent. It edged up again in February to 7.45 per cent, the CMIE data released on Saturday showed. During March, the unemployment rate in urban areas was at 8.4 per cent while in the rural areas it was at 7.5 per cent.
Buoyancy in the real estate sector along with improved construction activities created jobs and facilitated the return of migrant workers to cities, the Economic Survey for 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday said. This assumes significance in view of loss of jobs due to lockdown restrictions imposed in various parts of the country from time to time amid different waves of pandemic since March 2020. The survey points towards sustained recovery in the economic activities during 2022-23 fiscal year.
Violence is just too stark, too TRP friendly and so it gets a lot of attention in the media. But the crime of discrimination is much worse because it is much greater, it attracts no attention and it has no recourse, says Mahesh Vyas.
'Falling labour participation rate is common in the ageing populations of the developed world.' 'But India is a country with a young population.' 'It is imperative that the labour participation increases.' 'We need a larger labour force to increase our per capita income level,' points out Mahesh Vyas.
'The large scale and widespread shrinking of the labour force in November, the peaking of unemployment in October and the fall in lead indicators in October and November point towards a worsening of the slowdown of the Indian economy in the third quarter of 2019-20,' says Mahesh Vyas.
Growth in corporate profits needs to be commensurate with wages to boost the economy, Economic Survey 2024-25 said, noting that sharp disparities between the two pose risk to the economy by curbing demand. The document tabled in Parliament on Friday noted that while the labour share of GVA (gross value added) shows a slight uptick, the disproportionate rise in corporate profitsredominantly among large firmsaises concerns about income inequality.
Employment in India saw a V-shaped recovery after being adversely impacted between April and June 2020 during the Covid lockdown and during April-June 2021, when the second wave struck, said Krishnamurthy V Subramanian, former chief economic advisor, in a paper released on Friday. Subramanian is now serving as executive director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). From the official survey data of the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), the paper titled 'Employment in India: Data Sources, Facts, and Trends' showed that both worker-population ratio (WPR) and labour force participation rate (LFPR) were higher, while the unemployment rate was lower during October-December 2022 when compared to the corresponding quarter in 2019.
The labour force fell from 43.97 crore in 2016-17 to 42.61 crore in 2017-18
'The policy focus of the government should have been on creating more good quality jobs but that was not their focus.'
The labour participation rate tells us how many of the working age population are willing to be employed. If this proportion keeps falling as it evidently is, it does not bode well for India's growth story. It renders all stories of a revival in the economy as a myth, warns Mahesh Vyas.
With India poised to become the largest economy in the world by 2030, it cannot afford to leave half of its workforce behind.
A new paper by blames 'jobs deficit' for the decline in female labour force.
'When manufacturing or even services cannot generate the kind of employment they are looking for, they prefer to be unemployed rather than under-employed.'
Amid US-China trade tensions and economic vulnerabilities, India must seize the 'China +1' opportunity, deepen reforms, secure FTAs, and globalise its firms for long-term growth, suggests Ajay Shah.
'Three manufacturing sectors can create jobs by the million: Apparel, food, and electronic assembly.' 'Let's talk to them and ask them what it would take to scale by a factor of ten,' suggests Naushad Forbes.
According to NSSO, more than half of India's working-age population is out of labour force. In 2017-18, the youth unemployment rate was in the range 13.6-27.2 per cent.
Only one in four workers in Karnataka receive a salary, the lowest among the four industrialised states of India, a Business Standard analysis of the latest annual Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data shows. While 31.6 per cent workers in Gujarat receive regular wages (or salaries), followed by Tamil Nadu (30.3 per cent) and Maharashtra (29.4 per cent), only 25.7 per cent workers in Karnataka receive the same. The figure stands at 21.5 per cent at the national level, according to the 2021-22 PLFS data.
Households with only one employed person can be considered to be somewhat vulnerable. Their proportion is rising. Also rising is the proportion of highly vulnerable households with no person employed, observes Mahesh Vyas.
The unemployment rate among women came down to 12.4 per cent in urban areas
That is the number for job creation that India needs to achieve, argues T N Ninan.
US job growth increased at a fairly brisk clip in October and the unemployment rate fell to a fresh six-year low of 5.8 per cent, underscoring the economy's resilience in the face of slowing global demand.
Youth unemployment (ages 15 to 29) is higher than the national average of 12.4 per cent in Telangana (14.2 per cent) and Rajasthan (13 per cent), followed by Chhattisgarh (6.7 per cent) and MP (6 per cent).
NITI Aayog has not said what the reasons were for having achieved or not having achieved what was sought to be achieved, or what lessons can be learned for the future, points out Aakar Patel.
Fitch on Tuesday affirmed India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook, on robust growth and resilient external finances, but said weak public finances remain a challenge. India's rating has been unchanged at 'BBB-', which is the lowest investment grade, since August 2006. "Fitch Ratings has affirmed India's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook," it said in a statement, adding strong growth potential is a key supporting factor for the sovereign rating.
What the labour market statistics of March 2022 show is India's biggest sign of economic distress, points out Mahesh Vyas.
The finance ministry expects a broad-based moderation in inflationary pressures on the back of an anticipated reduction in food prices as a result of the uptick in summer sowing. The retail inflation rate remained stubbornly clung to the 5 per cent mark in seven of the past eight months. "Core inflation is trending downwards, indicating a broad-based moderation in price pressures... Driven by strong domestic growth and benign global commodity prices, core inflation is declining continuously.
Nothing in India's recent history suggests that India can provide 8-9 million jobs a year, let alone generate 50 million jobs in any reasonable time, notes Mahesh Vyas.
The return of the unemployment rate to pre-lockdown times is not worth celebrating because it is more a reflection of a shrinking labour force than a decline in the count of the unemployed, observes Mahesh Vyas.
'By November 2020, men recovered most of their lost jobs, but women were less fortunate: 49 per cent of the job losses by November were of women.' 'The recovery has benefited all, but it benefited women less than it did men,' notes Mahesh Vyas.
